Uhereye ku majyambere y’ibihugu by’i Burayi byapakiye ibipfunyika bipfunyika kugirango turebe imigendekere yinganda zamakarito muri 2023

Uhereye ku majyambere y’ibihugu by’i Burayi byapakiye ibipfunyika bipfunyika kugirango turebe imigendekere yinganda zamakarito muri 2023

Uyu mwaka, ibihangange bipakira amakarito yu Burayi byakomeje inyungu nyinshi nubwo ibintu byifashe nabi, ariko intsinzi yabo ishobora kumara igihe kingana iki? Muri rusange, 2022 uzaba umwaka utoroshye kubinini binini bipakira amakarito. Hamwe n'izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ingufu n’ibiciro by’umurimo, amasosiyete akomeye yo mu Burayi arimo Schmofi Kappa Group na Desma Group nayo arwana no guhangana n’ibiciro by’impapuro.

Abasesenguzi ba Jeffries bavuga ko kuva mu mwaka wa 2020, igiciro cy’ibikoresho byabugenewe bitunganyirizwa mu bicuruzwa, igice kinini cy’ibicuruzwa bipfunyika, byikubye hafi kabiri mu Burayi. Ubundi, ikiguzi cyibikoresho byinkumi bikozwe mubiti aho kuba amakarito yongeye gukoreshwa byakurikiranye inzira isa. Muri icyo gihe, abaguzi bashishikajwe no kugabanya amafaranga bagabanya amafaranga bakoresha kuri interineti, ibyo bikaba bigabanya no gukenera amakarito.

Iminsi yicyubahiro yigeze kuzanwa nicyorezo gishya cyikamba, nkibicuruzwa bikora mubushobozi bwuzuye, gutanga amakarito, hamwe no kuzamuka kwibiciro byimigabane y'ibihangange bipakira… ibi byose birarangiye. Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, ayo masosiyete akora neza kurusha mbere. Smurfi Kappa aherutse gutangaza ko izamuka rya 43% ryinjiza mbere y’inyungu, imisoro, guta agaciro no kugabanuka kuva muri Mutarama kugeza mu mpera za Nzeri, mu gihe amafaranga yinjira yazamutseho kimwe cya gatatu. Ibyo bivuze ko amafaranga 2022 yinjiza n’inyungu zimaze kurenga urwego rwabanjirije icyorezo, nubwo ari kimwe cya kane cyinzira igana mu mpera za 2022.

Hagati aho, Desma, igihangange mu bikoresho byo gupakira ibintu mu Bwongereza, yazamuye iteganyagihe ry’umwaka kugeza ku ya 30 Mata 2023, avuga ko inyungu zakozwe mu gice cya mbere zigomba kuba nibura miliyoni 400 z'amapound, ugereranije na 2019. Yari miliyoni 351 z'amapound. Ikindi gihangange cyo gupakira, Mondi, cyazamuye igipimo cyacyo ku gipimo cya 3 ku ijana, kirenga inshuro ebyiri inyungu zacyo mu gice cya mbere cy’umwaka, nubwo hasigaye ibibazo bitarakemuka mu bucuruzi bw’Uburusiya bukomeye.

Ivugurura ry’ubucuruzi rya Desma mu Kwakira ntiryari rito ku makuru arambuye, ariko havugwa “ingano yo hasi gato ku dusanduku twagereranijwe”. Mu buryo nk'ubwo, iterambere rya Smurf Kappa ntabwo ari ingaruka zo kugurisha udusanduku twinshi - kugurisha agasanduku kayo kameze neza mu mezi icyenda ya mbere ya 2022 ndetse byagabanutseho 3% mu gihembwe cya gatatu. Ibinyuranye, ibyo bihangange byongera inyungu zinganda mukuzamura ibiciro byibicuruzwa.

Mubyongeyeho, ingano yubucuruzi ntabwo isa nkaho yateye imbere. Muri uku kwezi kwinjiza amafaranga, Umuyobozi mukuru wa Smurfi Kappa, Tony Smurphy yagize ati: “Umubare w’ubucuruzi mu gihembwe cya kane urasa cyane n’ibyo twabonye mu gihembwe cya gatatu. Gutora. Birumvikana ko ntekereza ko amasoko amwe nk'Ubwongereza n'Ubudage bimaze amezi abiri cyangwa atatu ashize. ”

Ibi bibaza ikibazo: bizagendekera bite inganda zikora ibisanduku muri 2023? Niba isoko hamwe n’abaguzi bakeneye ibicuruzwa bipfunyitse bitangiye kuringaniza, abakora ibicuruzwa bipfunyitse barashobora gukomeza kuzamura ibiciro kugirango babone inyungu nyinshi? Abasesenguzi bishimiye ivugururwa rya SmurfKappa urebye macro igoye kandi yoherejwe na karito idakomeye yatangajwe imbere mu gihugu. Muri icyo gihe, Smurfi Kappa yashimangiye ko iryo tsinda rifite “igereranya rikomeye cyane n’umwaka ushize, urwego twahoraga tubona ko rudashoboka”.

Ariko, abashoramari barashidikanya cyane. Umugabane wa Smurfi Kappa uri munsi ya 25% ugereranije nuburebure bwicyorezo, naho Desmar ikamanuka 31%. Ninde ufite ukuri? Intsinzi ntabwo ishingiye gusa ku ikarito no kugurisha. Abasesenguzi ba Jefferies bavuga ko ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa bitunganyirizwa ibicuruzwa bizagabanuka bitewe n’ubushake buke bwa macro, ariko bakanashimangira ko impapuro z’imyanda n’ibiciro by’ingufu nazo zigabanuka, kuko ibi bivuze kandi ko ibiciro byo gukora ibicuruzwa bipfa kugabanuka.

Ati: "Ikintu gikunze kwirengagizwa, uko tubibona, ni uko ibiciro biri hasi bishobora kuba imbaraga nyinshi mu kwinjiza amafaranga kandi amaherezo, ku bakora inganda zikora amakarito, inyungu zo kuzigama zizaba zishingiye ku giciro icyo ari cyo cyose gishobora kugabanuka. Byerekanwe mbere yuko ibi birushijeho gukomera munzira imanuka (amezi 3-6 yatinze). Muri rusange, amafaranga yinjira mu biciro biri hasi agabanywa igice bitewe n'amafaranga ava mu byinjira. ” umusesenguzi kuri Jeffries Vuga.

Igihe kimwe, ikibazo cyibisabwa ubwacyo ntabwo cyoroshye rwose. Nubwo e-ubucuruzi no kudindiza byateje ubwoba imikorere yimikorere yamasosiyete apakira ibicuruzwa, umugabane munini wigurisha ryaya matsinda usanga mubindi bucuruzi. Kuri Desma, hafi 80% yinjiza ava mubicuruzwa byihuta byihuta (FMCG), nibicuruzwa bigurishwa mumaduka manini, kandi hafi 70% byapakiye amakarito ya Smurfi Kappa bihabwa abakiriya ba FMCG. Ibi bigomba kwerekana imbaraga mugihe isoko ryanyuma ritera imbere, kandi Desma yerekanye iterambere ryiza mubice nko gusimbuza plastike.

Mugihe rero ibyifuzo byahindutse, ntibishoboka ko bigwa munsi yikintu runaka - cyane cyane urebye kugaruka kwabakiriya binganda byibasiwe nicyorezo cya COVID-19. Ibi bishimangirwa n’ibisubizo biherutse kuva muri MacFarlane (MACF), byagaragaje ko 14% byinjije 14% mu mezi atandatu ya mbere ya 2022 nk’uko byagarutsweho n’abakiriya b’indege, ubwubatsi n’abashyitsi kuruta guhagarika umuvuduko wo guhaha kuri interineti.

Abapakira ibikonjo nabo bakoresha icyorezo kugirango bongere impapuro zabo. Umuyobozi mukuru wa Smurfi Kappa, Tony Smurphy yashimangiye ko imiterere y’imari shingiro y’isosiyete ye “iri mu mwanya mwiza twigeze kubona” mu mateka yacu, hamwe n’umwenda / inyungu mbere yo gukuramo inshuro inshuro zitari munsi ya 1.4. Umuyobozi mukuru wa Desmar, Myles Roberts, na we yashimangiye ko muri Nzeri, avuga ko umwenda / amafaranga yinjije mu itsinda rye mbere yo kugabanya amortort yagabanutse kugera ku 1.6, “imwe mu mibare yo hasi cyane twabonye mu myaka myinshi”.

Ibi byose byiyongera kubisobanuro abasesenguzi bamwe bemeza ko isoko rirakabije, cyane cyane kubireba abapakira FTSE 100, igiciro kiri munsi ya 20% ugereranije n’ibyumvikanyweho ku nyungu mbere yo gukuramo. Ibiciro byabo rwose birashimishije, aho Desma yacururizaga imbere ya P / E igereranyo ya 8.7 gusa ugereranije nimyaka itanu yimyaka 11.1, naho Schmurf Kappa imbere ya P / E ya 10.4 ugereranije nimyaka 5 yimyaka 12.3. Byinshi bizaterwa nubushobozi bwikigo bwo kwemeza abashoramari ko bashobora gukomeza gutungurwa muri 2023.